Predictions for the Next Millennium
Tom Barnes
12/20/00

Predictions suck. Nobody remembers when you're right, everyone remembers when you're wrong.

2001 will see the dawn of the relevancy war. Consumers, empowered by technology, shun irrelevant marketing messages and other promotional attempts to "steal attention".

Marketing in full crisis as clutter increases and media fragments further. Audiences refuse to coagulate making message frequency almost unobtainable.

TiVo and other "black box" adoption grow past expectations. Meaning of "brand" begins its slow, inevitable disintegration. "The brand" no longer safe hiding for pseudo-intellectual claptrap.

The networks freak as audiences turn to broadband web access, cable and satellite choices. "Event" television stabilizes some erosion, but only temporarily as serial television looses its viability permanently. Even sports won't save the networks. Local TV broadcasters scream to an impotent Washington for relief. Attempts at deregulation fail in gridlock from November election.

Hollywood responds to media fragmentation by throwing money at it. Batting average falls for all the big distributors' block-busting attempts. Teen-driven sex romps and horror films see continued success. On the heals of RugRats and Grinch, 5-12 demo (family) established as hot new film segment. Family films/small indie and one, maybe two, true block busters save Summer 2001 from utter disaster. First-run theaters shutter as margins get crushed. Porn revenue grows exponentially.

Small-film profitability gets even hipper as audience research further alienates creatives.

Talent in major transition: Big stars too old-- glut of young, not-quite stars fetch profit-killing salaries. Media behemoths conspire overtime to manufacture celebrity with mixed results.

Sillerman the man to watch in 2001 as he stuns Hollywood with his ability to "show the money" and consolidate talent representation. Look at his track record before you bet against him.

Audio entertainment explodes in a big mess with satellite, streaming, and in-car wireless Internet. Consumers overwhelmed. Record companies turn their backs on medium and small market radio, slashing promotion budgets and gutting departments; finally putting significant resources into the web. Record sales remain solid as file sharing becomes new method of promotion, though no one will admit it. Radio shrugs it all off. Marketers see radio as their only safe harbor in 2001.

Print stays flat as every emergent segment gets saturated overnight and Production/mailing costs grow faster than inflation.

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