The rate at which an innovation spreads generally follows one of nature’s most reliable patterns: the bell curve, whose peak depends on the rate of spread. Two factors influence the rate of uptake. The curve is more traditionally bell-shaped if an innovation grows organically, moving from introduction to saturation, with most of the adoption happening up front. This is usually followed by a popularity that declines along with its perception of novelty, so that ultimate acceptance is limited. A more traditional S-curve indicates that adoption is more gradual and peaks later, resulting in deeper, more sustained adoption.

The bell curve or S-curve representation always applies no matter the innovation because we are measuring two factors: time and mass. The more popular an item becomes, the more valuable it gets, until it reaches a saturation point where everybody either has the new product or is no longer impressed by its novelty.

Here is the real magic for forecasters: The bell curve of adoption aligns elegantly with Rogers’ diffusion of innovation model, with innovators scarce at 2.5 percent; early adopters at 13.5 percent; the early and late majorities each at 34 percent; and laggards at 16 percent. Note that this last percentage equals the sum of the pioneers (innovators) and their leading disciples (early adopters). More importantly, by aligning the reach of a given product or idea and matching it to Rogers’ behavioral profiles, you can see with great precision the attributes of interest most relevant to the tribe you are communicating to. It is difficult to overstate the value of connecting the product lifecycle with the diffusion of innovation.

The groups populating the front and rear 16 percent are polar opposites in their acceptance of innovations. Innovators are unconventional and adventurous in their outlook and tastes, while the late majority and laggard groups are traditional and conservative. Further, innovation leaders are well connected across many tribes and social systems, while laggards may be isolated within fewer tribes. This isolation decreases their awareness of why an innovation may be worthwhile to them. Depending upon the innovation involved and the tribes in which someone moves, anybody could wind up in any of the five categories. However, the more or less static percentages tell a consistent story about the way people adopt innovations. With rare exception, the pace of adoption starts slowly, picks up speed as the adoption scales, then plateaus and falls off until only the laggards of the given tribe are still holding out.

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