Predictions for '99

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I don't remember who said it, but the biggest problem with being a forecaster is that nobody remembers when you're right and everyone remembers when you're wrong.

Here are my predictions for '99:

Another year blows by us at an even faster clip than the one before. Given the space constraints, we'll skip the disclaimer and get right to the predictions. If you want to see my predictions from last year, Click Here

Consolidation continues except it's the labels this time

Radio's done consolidating. Sure there will be spin offs, but nothing like the last two years. If you work in records, and want to know your future, pick up old trades and see what happened in radio: fewer jobs, more responsibility, and less job security. Do you know what HTML and Mpeg3 mean? If not, order up the Maylox and Xanax.

Debate over spot inventory rages: programmers try new tactics to make 14 unit hours work.

You'll be running 14 units an hour while your smaller competitor survives on 11. If you think your listeners can't tell the difference, ask 'em. You're not gonna need to ask your advertisers. Try upping the rate, or varying the rate relative to a spot's position in the cluster. Meanwhile, music programming on the web and off the bird remains virtually clutter free. Additionally, the new Mpeg3 technology makes downloading portable music off the web a cinch.

Industry blows off launch of satellite radio

Everyone will ignore the launch of satellite digital radio except the consumers. This ain't HDTV. No one will be confused. One million of those tiny TV satellite dishes were sold to consumers the first year they appeared. Do you see what 's happening to the networks? You're next.

Labels test music before release

Like pay to play last year, this will be the hot topic. Yes, you can test music before it is released. You just have to do it properly. You'll hear all about it next year.

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