Predictions for 2000

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Another millennium passes. Ho hum. Who cares? I'll go out on a limb and say this Y2K thing will be the most hyped, non-event of your life-- just another hike around the sun. Musically little will change. No new formats really (no, classic rock that really rocks is not a new format). CHR will continue to thrive. Alternative and active rock will debate and position over meaningless distinctions. Country will continue its slow come back. Lots of pre-fab boy bands, girlie dance pop, and cross-cultural heart throbs. Just like this year. So let's talk about what really matters: your life.

Ironically, while music won't change much in 2000, whether you are in radio or records, your life is going to change next year. Big time. Those of you who read my year-end diatribe know I always say that. The difference is-- this time-- you're gonna feel it in your pocket book.

Economic news through the first two quarters will be excellent. Online e-commerce will disappoint only the most optimistic of forecasters. Almost everyone you know will have made a purchase on-line this holiday season. That's huge.

Dot com business has driven extraordinary growth in media spending this year. 80% of TV ads had a web address on them. But get ready for the shake out 'cause it's coming. Probably around the end of the third quarter as Internet company resources move from marketing to customer service and consolidation. If radio works, and we know it does, the good ones will have customers-lot's of 'em. The bad ones will be broke. Nothing kills a bad product faster than good advertising.

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